地表过程与水土风沙灾害风险防控全国重点实验室城镇化与风险防控国际合作团队于2025年5月8日在美国科学（Science）期刊发表最新研究成果：中国城镇化正在转折点上：挑战与机遇（China’s urbanization at a turning point—challenges and opportunities）。该文作者和通信作者为白雪梅（澳大利亚国立大学芬纳环境与社会学院城市环境与人类生态学系教授，地表过程与水土风沙灾害风险防控全国重点实验室开放合作教授与咨询专家并兼任国家外专局综合灾害风险研究团队引智专家）和史培军（北京师范大学地理科学学部/文理学院地理系教授，地表过程与水土风沙灾害风险防控全国重点实验室咨询专家）。该文工作由澳大利亚研究委员会桂冠基金（Laureate Fellowship Grant FL230100021）和中国国家自然科学基金重点项目（No. 42330502） 资助。全文中文翻译如下：
一 中国城镇化正在转折点上
根据国家统计局数据，中国城镇化率（即居住在城市的人口比例）在2024年已达到67%，在过去45年里保持了每年超过1%的增长速度。这种由国家政策强力推动的、快速和大规模的城镇化进程，被称为历史上最大规模定居城镇的实验。最新的国家政策文件重申了“以人为本的城市化”理念，这是2014年发布的《国家新型城镇化规划》中提出的一个关键原则。这种措辞的延续强调了中国城市化过程中政策方向的重大转变--从土地驱动的发展转向优先考虑民生福祉，从追求数量转向优先考虑城市发展的质量。
这一转变正在两个相互交织的“达峰”背景下展开。首先，中国人口已进入下降阶段，2022年达到14亿的峰值后开始减少。与此同时，未完全融入城市的“流动人口”，即从农村地区迁移到城市（镇）但未获得正式城市户籍的农民工数量也开始减少。这些人在过去十年里一直是新增城市人口的主要来源，但其中超过1亿人已经转变为正式城市居民，而且有部分人则在经济放缓后返回了农村老家。其次，曾经推动城市GDP增长的城市扩张和房地产开发潮现在已经失去了动力。几家主要房地产企业已经破产，许多城市现在面临财政紧张或债务水平上升的问题。总体而言，这些趋势使得传统的扩张导向、土地驱动的城镇化模式越来越难以维持。
值得注意的是，《国家新型城镇化规划》实施所取得的成就也意味着政策的重心正在转移。该规划于2014年3月发布，旨在促进城镇化作为持续经济增长的关键驱动力，同时引导走向更可持续的道路。它为城镇化设定了战略方向和具体目标，涵盖城镇化率、教育和医疗等社会服务供给、住房和基础设施、可再生能源、绿色建筑、空气质量等广泛领域。在一系列政策和实施措施的协同下，该规划一直是推动中国城镇化的总体指导原则。十年过去了，结果如何，又出现了哪些新的挑战和机遇？虽然在过去10年中，要从诸多其它潜在混杂因素中甄别出该规划的因果影响的研究有限，但探索该规划强调的指标趋势仍然很有价值。
二 中国快速城镇化10年的成就与透视
《国家新型城镇化规划》设定的大多数定量目标已经实现，甚至超额完成。国家城镇化率增加了超过10个百分点，主要驱动有相邻农村地区发展并随后融入城区，以及户籍制度的进一步放宽（户口是一种限制农村地区人口向城市流动的户籍登记制度，尤其是在中小城市中）。
基础设施可能是发生最显著变化的领域。城市住房存量大幅增加，从城市地区人均不到15平方米增加到超过25平方米。截至2023年，中国超过94%的新建建筑被归类为绿色建筑。根据美国绿色建筑委员会（负责监督能源与环境设计先导（LEED）评级系统的非政府组织）的最新报告，中国已连续九年在LEED认证年度前十国家和地区排行榜上名列第一。
随着住房需求接近饱和，城市建设的热潮开始减弱，政策重点正在转向城市更新和升级。当前的关键优先事项包括修复2000年前建造的老旧城市住宅区，改善新形成的城中村（这些地方通常由刚进城的农民工居住，缺乏足够的公共服务和安全基础设施），以及有针对性地更换老化的燃气管道。与此同时，由于其对农地流失的影响，曾经是主要关注点的土地流转已经在政策议程中降低了重要性。
城市间的高速铁路网从2014年的10,000公里增长到2024年的48,000公里。现在的高铁长度约占中国铁路总长度的30%，占世界高速铁路网络的80%。在基础设施扩张的同时，政府越来越重视推广可再生能源和交通系统的脱碳。值得注意的是，山东省--中国北方最大的能源消费省份之一--在2022年至2024年期间对煤炭发电的依赖从80%降低到60%，这主要通过投资海上风能实现。
到2023年底，电动公交车占据中国公共巴士车辆的近70%。与此同时，新能源汽车（NEV）普及并激增。根据中国国家发改委数据，新能源汽车在2021年占总车辆销售量的14.8%，到2024年上升到47.6%--并在该年下半年超过50%。
城市内部环境质量有了显著改善。例如，过去十年中，中国城市的大气环境质量有明显改善。年平均PM2.5浓度从2013年的66µg/m³下降到2023年约30µg/m³，达到国家空气质量标准。在北京，生态环境局的数据显示，重度污染天数从2013年的58天下降到2024年的仅2天，同时破纪录地取得290天的优良空气质量（PM2.5 < 35µg/m³）记录，为空气质量监测开始以来最多的优良空气质量天数。这种显著改善，尽管低于世界卫生组织15µg/m³的标准，但仍然是多项措施与工程实施协同努力的结果，包括减少建筑扬尘、加速普及电动汽车、产业结构调整和实施全面的城市环境管理策略。
随着与气候变化相关灾害的增多，增强城市韧性成为优先事项。关于海绵城市倡议有效性的证据已经出现--这是2015年启动的一项中国国家计划，旨在通过增加城市森林、湿地、绿色屋顶等绿色基础设施，以及透水铺装来增强城市防洪韧性。作为海绵城市试点城市的深圳已投资超过100亿美元（主要来自公共资金，辅以公私合作），在46%的城市区域实现绿色基础设施和透水铺装覆盖。数据显示，在2017年和2020年相似的3天强降雨事件中，洪水发生区数量减少了38%。深圳现在的目标是将海绵基础设施覆盖率扩大到80%。其它城市也观察到类似的益处，包括重度洪涝减少以及与公共健康和社会福祉相关的附带益处。然而，尽管有这些令人鼓舞的成果，担忧依然存在。这项倡议需要大量的前期投资，关于海绵城市承受极端降雨事件能力的问题仍然存在，以及如透水表面堵塞等技术挑战。
在社会方面，成效看起来更为复杂。首先，在推进“以人为本”的城市治理方面取得了显著进展。诸如12345市民服务热线这样的平台已在北京等城市建立，以确保及时回应公众投诉并强化政府问责制。然而，在提高地方治理的问责制和透明度方面还有很长的路要走，尤其是考虑到普遍存在的对一些地方官员（从村长到市长皆如此）腐败的担忧。另外，互联网接入的普及，结合远程医疗系统的发展，也促进了获取医疗服务的改善--使农村和县级中小城市的患者能够访问和网诊拥有先进医学知识和技术的省级医院。然而，远程教育的类似进展取得的成果还很有限。尽管连接性提高，但在获取优质教育资源方面仍然存在相当大的差距，使城乡教育差距成为最显著和持久的不平等表现形式之一。
三 中国城镇化面对的挑战、风险与机遇
展望未来，持续和新出现的挑战与风险和机遇密不可分。其中最重要的是需要提供足够且令人满意的工资收入的城市就业机会。许多前农民工建筑工人已经转入网约配送服务等岗位，但随着年龄增长，他们有限且往往不匹配的技能使得很难获得稳定、高收入的就业。近年来青年失业率激增，甚至影响到大学毕业生。快速发展的技术，如无人机配送系统和制造业及家政服务行业中机器人的预期广泛使用，可能会减少传统服务部门的劳动力需求，这都要求就业和劳动力发展有创新的方法。相反，城市人口的快速老龄化可能带来新的发展增长机会，特别是在医疗保健和养老服务行业。
城乡差距依然存在，许多农村地区的土地使用效率低下现象普遍存在。但是，农村地区的活力对城市的长期繁荣至关重要。最近的研究表明，通过综合些同方法，更高水平的城镇化可以同时支持粮食安全并提高农村农民的收入。近年来，农产品价格上涨直接促进了农村收入增加，这一趋势可能会随着城镇化推进而持续存在。促进人员双向流动也至关重要。除了将农民工融入城市结构外，鼓励受过高等教育的年轻人在农村地区追求创业，无论是在农业领域内外，都有助于弥合城乡差距。随着户口制度的持续放宽，以及在一些沿海和富裕地区，城市居民身份不再被视为特权资产，因为政府政策越来越偏向农村振兴，这一愿景可能变得更加可实现。
随着中国城市在全球价值链中的上升，产业在不太有利的贸易和地缘政治环境中，面临越来越多的国际竞争，使经济结构调整成为紧迫的优先事项。然而，中国东部和西部中国之间的持续区域差距，可能带来独特的机遇。随着西部地区迅速定位为可再生能源生产核心低区，如甘肃省白银市和新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市等城市正在努力吸引和发展人工智能等能源密集型产业以及数字经济部门。同时，东部沿海地区持续的高能源需求可能创造一个以高压输电基础设施发展为中心的新增长领域。最近的贸易和地缘政治紧张局势，反而可能有利于分布式可再生能源系统的扩展和减排。针对出口下降，中央政府已经干预，将原本用于国际贸易的太阳能电池板转向在农村和城市地区的大规模部署，并得到政府补贴的支持。这一政策干预有可能加速中国的低碳转型。
城市间过度竞争和同质化的趋势值得关注。许多城市追求重叠的愿景和目标，往往导致资源利用效率和效益低下，表现为过度建设和超过实际需求的基础设施开发。据估计，就当前和近期的人口需求而言，目前的房屋存量约为6亿栋，包含约30%的盈余。尽管如此，在北京、上海和深圳等大都市，居民住房负担能力仍然是一个关键挑战。迫切需要开发新机制，将盈余住房重新用于满足低收入群体的需求。应鼓励地方政府采用创新的、因地制宜的方法，反映其独特的文化名片和历史遗产，同时也要符合各自的环境和资源禀赋。
研究表明，随着城镇化的推进，中国自然灾害的脆弱性呈线性下降，即受灾害影响人口总数和经济损失减少的占比明显减少。研究还强调了手机和互联网连接的普及，实现了灾害的实时监测和早期预警系统的发展，大大减少了城市地区对气候变化相关灾害的暴露。随着城市日益互联互通并变得相互依存，努力在网络化的城市系统中建立功能性韧性已非常重要。
在全球快速城镇化中，中国城镇化进程和成就在某些方面可以被认为是领先的基准。中国克服挑战的经验为全球南方快速城镇化的国家提供了宝贵的经验教训。尽管在政治、经济和社会背景独特，但一个突出的关键教训是中国广泛使用政策实验来识别可行且有效的解决方案，并有支持成功做法推广的机制。但也有明显的陷阱，比如应尽可能避免许多中国城市所见的严重环境退化，优先考虑发展速度而非民生福祉可能造成持久的挑战。中国的经验还表明，通过快速城镇化发展和采用替代技术实现跨越式发展是可能的。
总之，虽然中国的城镇化预计在未来十年内将继续推进，但近几十年这种快速、引人注目的转变时代可能正在接近尾声。未来的重点是进行更深层次、更全面的转变--一个涉及城市高质量发展的结构性、社会性和环境复杂性的转变。在下一阶段相互交织的挑战、风险和机遇之间找到正确的行动方向，对于实现中国城市梦的全部承诺至关重要。
（本文根据Xuemei Bai and Peijun Shi 2025年5月 8 日发表在“科学”上的China’s Urbanization at a Turning Point- Challenges and Opportunities（SCIENCE，8 May 2025，Vol 388, Issue 6747）（ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.a，）翻译而成，文内标题是翻译时翻译者加的. （史培军 黄庆旭 译）
XUEMEI BAI HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0001-6556-8041 AND PEIJUN SHI HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-2968-7331Authors Info & Affiliations
SCIENCE 8 May 2025 Vol 388, Issue 6747
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s urbanization ratio (i.e., the share of population living in urban areas) reached 67% in 2024, maintaining a pace of over 1 percentage point increase per year over the past 45 years. Strongly driven by national policy, such extraordinary speed and scale are described as the largest experiment in human settlement in history. The latest national policy documents reiterate the commitment to “people-centered urbanization,” a principle put in place in the National New-type Urbanization Plan announced in 2014. This continuity in language belies a critical turning point—a shift from land-driven development to prioritizing people’s welfare, and a transition from pursuing quantity to prioritizing quality in urban development.
This transition is unfolding against the backdrop of two converging peak trends. First, China’s population has entered a phase of decline, having peaked at 1.4 billion in 2022. Simultaneously, the number of unintegrated, “floating population”—migrant workers from rural areas who moved to cities without acquiring formal urban residency—has also begun to shrink. These individuals had been a primary source of new urban residents over the past decade, but more than 100 million of them already transitioned into official urban residency, and some returned to their rural home following economic slowdown. Second, the once-booming wave of urban expansion and real estate development that had fueled GDP (gross domestic product) growth in cities has now lost momentum. Several major real estate industries have gone bankrupt, and many cities now face strained finances or rising levels of debt. Together, these trends are making the traditional model of expansion-oriented, land-driven urbanization increasingly unsustainable.
Notably, the achievements under the implementation of the National New-type of Urbanization Plan also mean that key policy focuses are shifting. Released in March 2014, the plan aimed to promote urbanization as a key driver for continued economic growth, while steering the course toward a more sustainable end. It set a strategic direction and specific targets across wide-ranging aspects, including urbanization ratio, social service provision including education and medical care, housing and infrastructure, renewable energy, green building, air quality, etc. Accompanied by a series of policies and implementation measures, the plan has been an overarching guiding principle for promoting urbanization in China. A decade on, how do the results measure up, and what are the emerging challenges and opportunities? Though there has been limited research to isolate the causal impacts of the plan from among other potential confounding factors over the past 10 years, there is value in exploring trends in metrics highlighted by the plan.
Most quantitative targets set by the National New-type Urbanization Plan have been met—or even exceeded. The national urbanization ratio increased by over 10 percentage points, largely driven by the development and subsequent integration of adjacent rural areas into urban districts, and by the further relaxation of the Hukou, a household registration system designed to restrict the population movement from rural regions to cities, particularly in small and medium-sized cities.
Infrastructure might be the area in which the most visible changes have occurred. Urban housing stock has increased considerably, rising from less than 15 m2 to over 25 m2 per capita in urban areas. As of 2023, over 94% of newly constructed buildings are classified as green buildings. According to a recent report by the United States Green Building Council—a nongovernmental organization overseeing the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system—China has ranked first on the annual list of Top 10 Countries and Regions for LEED certification for nine consecutive years.
As housing demand nears saturation and the construction boom begins to wane, policy attention is shifting toward urban renewal and upgrading. Key priorities now include the rehabilitation of aging urban residential communities built before 2000, the improvement of newly formed urban villages—often inhabited by recent migrant workers and lacking adequate public services and safety infrastructure—and the targeted replacement of aging gas pipelines. Meanwhile, land conversion, once a major concern because of its implications for agricultural land loss, has diminished in prominence as a policy issue.
The high-speed railway network across cities grew from 10,000 km in 2014 to 48,000 km by 2024. This now accounts for ∼30% of the country’s total railway length and 80% of the world high-speed rail network. Alongside infrastructure expansion, the government has placed increasing emphasis on promoting renewable energy and decarbonizing transportation systems. Notably, Shandong Province—one of Northern China’s largest energy consumers—reduced its dependence on coal-fired power from 80 to 60% between 2022 and 2024, primarily by investing in offshore wind energy.
By the end of 2023, electric buses made up nearly 70% of China’s public bus fleet. Meanwhile, the adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has surged: According to the National Development and Reform Commission, NEVs accounted for 14.8% of total vehicle sales in 2021, rising to 47.6% in 2024—and exceeding 50% in the latter half of that year.
Inner-city environmental quality has seen substantial improvements. For example, ambient air quality in Chinese cities has improved markedly over the past decade. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter that is 2.5 μm in diameter or smaller) has declined from 66 μg/m3 in 2013 to ∼30 μg/m3, meeting the national air quality standards. In Beijing, data from the Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau show that the number of heavily polluted days dropped from 58 in 2013 to just two in 2024, while the city recorded 290 days of good air quality (PM2.5<35> began. This substantial improvement, albeit still short of the World Health Organization standard of 15 μg/m3, is the result of multiple coordinated efforts, including a reduction in construction-related dust, the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, industrial restructuring, and the implementation of comprehensive urban environmental management strategies.
With the rise of climate-related hazards, building resilience has become a priority. Evidence has emerged on the effectiveness of the Sponge City initiative—a national program launched in 2015 aimed at enhancing urban resilience to flooding by increasing green infrastructure such as urban forest, wetlands, green roofs, and permeable surfaces. Shenzhen, a leading pilot city, has invested over USD 10 billion—primarily from public sources, supplemented by public-private partnership—to achieve 46% coverage of the city area by green infrastructure and permeable pavements. The city reported a 38% reduction in the number of flooded sites under comparable 3-day heavy rainfall events in 2017 and 2020. Shenzhen now targets expansion of sponge infrastructure coverage to 80%. Similar benefits have been observed in other cities, including reductions in severe flooding and co-benefits related to public health and social well-being. However, despite these promising outcomes, concerns remain. The initiative demands substantial upfront investment, and questions persist regarding the sponge city’s capacity to withstand extreme rainfall events, as well as technical challenges such as the clogging of permeable surfaces.
On social fronts, outcomes appear more mixed. There has been notable progress in advancing people-centered urban governance. Platforms such as 12345 Citizen Service Hotline have been established in cities like Beijing, to ensure timely responses to public complaints and improve government accountability. Yet, there is still a long way to go in improving the accountability and transparency of local governance, given a prevailing sense of corruption among local officials, from village heads to city mayors. The widespread expansion of internet access, coupled with the development of remote health care systems, has also contributed to improved service delivery—enabling patients in rural and county-level small cities to access higher-tier provincial hospitals equipped with advanced medical knowledge and technologies. However, similar advancements in remote education have yielded more limited results. Despite increased connectivity, considerable disparities persist in access to high-quality education resources, making the urban-rural education gap one of the most pronounced and enduring forms of inequality.
Looking ahead, persistent and emerging challenges are inextricably linked with both risks and opportunities. Foremost among these is the need to provide urban job opportunities that offer adequate and satisfying wages. Many former migrant construction workers have transitioned into roles such as online order delivery services, but as they age, their limited and often mismatched skill sets make it difficult to secure stable, higher-paying employment. Youth unemployment has surged in recent years, affecting even university graduates. The rapid advancement of technologies—such as drone delivery systems and the anticipated widespread use of robotics in manufacturing and domestic services—is likely to reduce labor demand in traditional service sectors, calling for innovative approaches to employment and workforce development. Conversely, the rapid aging of the urban population may present new growth opportunities, particularly in health care and aged care industries.
Urban-rural disparities remain, and inefficient land use remains prevalent in many rural areas. Yet, the vitality of rural regions is essential to the long-term prosperity of cities. Recent research suggests that with an integrated approach, higher levels of urbanization can simultaneously support food security and raise incomes for rural farmers. In recent years, rising agricultural product prices have contributed directly to increased rural incomes—a trend likely to continue as urbanization continues. Fostering a two-way flow of people is also critical. Beyond integrating migrant workers into the urban fabric, encouraging highly educated youth to pursue entrepreneurial ventures in rural areas, both within and beyond the agricultural sector, can help bridge the urban-rural divide. This vision may become more attainable with continued relaxation of the Hukou system, and as urban residency status is no longer seen as a privileged asset in some coastal and wealthier regions as government policies increasingly favor rural revitalization.
As Chinese cities ascend global value chains, their industries face increasing international competition amid a less favorable trade and geopolitical landscape, making economic restructuring an urgent priority. The persistent regional disparities between Eastern and Western China, however, may present distinct opportunities. As western regions are rapidly positioning themselves as hubs for renewable energy production, cities such as Baiyin in Gansu Province and Ürümqi in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region are aiming to attract and develop energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence and other sectors of the digital economy. At the same time, persistent high energy demand in the Eastern coastal regions may create a new area of growth centered on the development of high-voltage electricity transmission infrastructure. Recent trade and geopolitical tensions could, paradoxically, prove advantageous for the expansion of distributed renewable energy systems and emissions reduction. In response to declining export, the national government has intervened to redirect solar panels previously intended for international trade toward large-scale deployment in both rural and urban areas, supported by government subsidies. This policy intervention has the potential to accelerate China’s low-carbon transition.
The tendency toward excessive competition and homogenization among cities is an issue that warrants attention. Many cities pursue overlapping visions and ambitions, often leading to inefficient resource allocation, manifested in overbuilding and infrastructure development that exceeds actual demand. According to a nationwide survey on natural disaster risk, there are a total of over 600 million housing stocks, with an estimated surplus of ∼30% to accommodate current and near-future population. Nonetheless, housing affordability remains a critical challenge in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. There is a pressing need to develop new mechanisms to repurpose surplus housing to meet the needs of low-income populations. Local governments should be encouraged to adopt innovative, context-sensitive approaches that reflect their distinctive cultural identities and historical legacies, while also aligning with their respective environmental and resource endowments.
Research indicates a linear decline in China’s vulnerability to natural disasters as urbanization progresses, as measured by reductions in both the total number of affected people and economic losses. Studies also highlight how the widespread adoption of mobile phones and internet connectivity has enabled real-time monitoring and early warning systems, substantially reducing exposure to climate-related hazards in urban areas. As cities are increasingly connected and become interdependent, it is important to strive toward building functional resilience across networked systems of cities.
Amid rapid global urbanization, China's urbanization process and achievements may in some respects be considered leading benchmarks. Its experiences in overcoming challenges offer valuable lessons for rapidly urbanizing countries in the Global South. Notwithstanding its specific political, economic, and social context, one key lesson that stands out is China's widespread use of policy experimentation to identify actionable and effective solutions, supported by mechanisms for scaling up successful practices. There are also obvious pitfalls: The severe environmental degradation seen in many Chinese cities should be avoided as much as possible, and prioritizing the speed of change over the welfare of people can create lasting challenges. China’s experience also demonstrates that it is possible to leapfrog through rapid development and adoption of alternative technologies.
In summary, although China’s urbanization is expected to continue over the coming decade, the era of rapid, visually striking transformation that characterized recent decades may be nearing its end. What lies ahead is the imperative for a deeper, more comprehensive shift—one that engages with the structural, social, and environmental complexities of urban development. Effectively navigating the interwoven challenges, risks, and opportunities of this next phase will be critical to realizing the full promise of China’s urban dream.
X.B. is supported by Australian Research Council Laureate Fellowship Grant FL230100021. P.S. is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 42330502).